what if, with the math shown. Nothing here is a forecast. Every run says what it models and what it does not.
Scenario
Preset
Dials
Coordinates: click the map to move the event.
Share
landpeoplekilled hereinfectedevent
speed per frameday 0
population-
dead-
temp anomaly-
food stock-
population (% of start)dead (% of start)temp anomaly (C, scaled)food stock (years)infected (%)other branches
Timelines
Fork the selected timeline at the current day with:or pre-author it at day
A fork copies the whole world at that day and steps on with the change. Each timeline gets a hash per week; the first week its hash differs from its parent is the divergence point. The violet band on the chart is the spread across all timelines; the centroid is their mean.
Verdict
What happened
What this models
What it does not
Sources
Population grid: GeoNames cities (CC BY 4.0) spread over Natural Earth country polygons (public domain), 1 degree cells, 8.0 billion people. Runs entirely in your browser.